Bitcoin & MSTR COLLAPSING — Bull Run Already OVER? | Tuur Demeester, Guy Swann, Pete Evans

SUMMARY

Bitcoin analyst Tuur Demeester, podcaster Guy Swann, and chef Pete Evans join host Ben to debate if the bull run is over amid price dips, affirming bullishness through institutional adoption, monetary tailwinds, and Bitcoin's role in reducing financial stress.

STATEMENTS

Bitcoin has dropped $10,000 from its recent high, but remains at $114,000, far from a bearish signal.
MicroStrategy stock is underperforming Bitcoin, reversing its prior leadership role.
Canada's M2 money supply hit a new record, averaging 8-12% annual growth since 1968.
U.S. Federal Reserve continues aggressive money printing, described as an unstoppable train.
Access to Bitcoin via 401k plans could drive significant inflows, with 1% of $60 trillion in global retirement funds potentially adding $30,000 to Bitcoin's price.
Gold's recent surge acts as a historical leading indicator for Bitcoin price movements.
The bull market has seen prices multiply 4-5 times over two years, requiring a major catalyst like a stock market crash to turn bearish.
Bitcoin expressed in gold has broken above a four-year resistance, now over 1 kilogram per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin in commodities shows a similar bullish breakout after a four-year holding pattern.
Mainstream media's fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) on Bitcoin often backfires, prompting self-education and adoption.
Pete Evans, orange-pilled five years ago, launched a Bitcoin and wellness retreat, receiving strong positive reception as a signal of growing interest.
Listening to mainstream Bitcoin coverage reveals its ignorance, as seen in Mt. Gox collapse misreporting.
On a logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's 9% drop from all-time high is negligible, still on trend down to $100,000.
This cycle features slower grinds up and less severe drops, influenced by institutional involvement ironing out volatility.
Retail participation remains low this cycle, with non-enthusiasts showing mild curiosity but no FOMO.
Nihilism in fiat systems leads people to view Bitcoin as insufficiently risky, missing its role as simple saving.
Inflation disconnects: production efficiency should lower prices, but fiat money fails as a measuring system.
A can of Coke is easier to produce today yet costs more; this highlights fiat's failure to reflect progress.
Economist Kenneth Rogoff, once bearish on Bitcoin, now admits error but blames government inaction.
Bitcoin is superior monetary technology, enabling long-term holding without constant investment stress.
Governments' bankruptcy postponement via taxation targets moving assets like stocks, favoring static savings like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin equates to historical gold but appreciates faster as an emerging asset.
Understanding cycles aids sanity and decision-making without promoting gambling.
Adopting a Bitcoin standard reduces financial stress, allowing focus on health, relationships, and growth.
Bitcoin's invention fosters curiosity and knowledge accumulation, a core human purpose.
Conferences like Bitcoin Prague and Vegas showcase ecosystem evolution, from mining to Nostr apps.
Bitcoiners exhibit open hearts, minds, and visions for humanity, contrasting societal doom.
Protocols evolve through bundling and unbundling, with Bitcoin unbundling finance.
Political associations with the populist right may cause hesitation in adoption.
This cycle breaks four-year patterns, potentially longer with new all-time highs in bear markets.
Bitcoin enables permissionless monetization, solving peer-to-peer funding issues.

IDEAS

Money supply explosions and institutional inflows act as hidden tailwinds, countering surface-level price dips.
Gold and commodities as Bitcoin proxies reveal underlying strength invisible in dollar terms.
Mainstream FUD inadvertently orange-pills skeptics by exposing media incompetence.
Log-scale charts expose panic as noise, framing 9% corrections as healthy within bull trends.
Institutional buying dampens volatility, creating a smoother path than retail-driven cycles.
Fiat-induced nihilism reframes Bitcoin as "too safe," inverting risk perceptions.
Economic progress demands deflationary money, yet fiat enforces inflation, disconnecting value measurement.
Simple questions like Coke can pricing unmask fiat's absurdity without needing jargon.
Apologies from Bitcoin critics like Rogoff highlight sound money's inevitability.
Bitcoin offloads mental burden, turning savings into autonomous, low-stress holding.
Taxation chases movement, making Bitcoin's immobility a tax-efficient haven.
Cycles awareness prevents sanity loss, preparing for personal financial possibilities.
Bitcoin standard liberates time for life improvement, cascading stress reduction across domains.
Hayek's view positions money as uncertainty hedge; fiat turns it into societal quicksand.
Low birth rates and nihilism stem from eroding monetary stability, Bitcoin restores hope.
Conferences reveal Bitcoin's brain drain, attracting diverse talents for innovation.
Peer-to-peer tech lacks funding until Bitcoin enables decentralized monetization.
History shows protocols advance in fits: internet decentralized data but recentralized people until Nostr.
Bundling creates efficiency but stifles freedom; Bitcoin unbundles finance countering monopolies.
Political coloring of Bitcoin mirrors censorship fears, but global utility transcends sides.
Institutional collateral use harnesses fiat debt cheaply, fueling Bitcoin's rise.
Gold failed at scale settlement; Bitcoin excels, settling trillions without physical limits.
Fraudulent systems thrive on unweighed debt; Bitcoin reintroduces real measurement.
Institutional god complexes will lead to bankruptcies, forcing adaptation one failure at a time.
Parallel systems may emerge: healthy wealth opt-ins versus fiat pain paths.
Adoption rhymes with health revolutions: pain catalyzes, but prevention idealizes.

INSIGHTS

Bitcoin's resilience lies in its scarcity amid fiat debasement, turning crises into adoption opportunities.
Viewing price through hard assets like gold uncovers bull markets hidden by dollar volatility.
Media's confident ignorance accelerates Bitcoin's narrative by driving independent verification.
Slower cycles signal maturity, with institutions stabilizing what retail amplified.
Fiat's inflation erodes savings psychology, positioning Bitcoin as restorative normalcy.
Monetary measurement must reflect productivity; failure explains societal economic angst.
Critics' concessions validate Bitcoin's demand as engineered sound money triumphs.
Long-term holding in Bitcoin equates to historical gold but amplified by digital emergence.
Financial sovereignty cascades to holistic well-being, freeing mental energy for growth.
Sound money rebuilds societal bedrock, countering fiat's induced uncertainty and despair.
Innovation clusters around Bitcoin, drawing global talent for protocol evolution.
Decentralized funding via Bitcoin unlocks peer-to-peer infrastructure, evading centralization traps.
Political hesitance is temporary; Bitcoin's neutrality shines in censorship-resistant utility.
Collateral innovation leverages fiat flaws, channeling debt into Bitcoin appreciation.
Bitcoin scales settlement exponentially, fixing gold's physical limits for global finance.
Real interest rates emerge with Bitcoin, balancing generational wealth imbalances.
Fraud detection is Bitcoin's feature, exposing systemic rot faster than fiat hides it.
Adoption timelines humble predictions, respecting individual sovereignty over outcomes.
Parallel economies allow choice: regenerative paths versus entrenched suffering.
Institutional integration breaks cycle myths, extending bulls through structural shifts.

QUOTES

"Bitcoin expressed in gold has been breaking up. So we're above 1 kilogram of gold per Bitcoin now, which was a four-year resistance level."
"Once you understand it, it just makes so much perfect sense."
"If you just really kind of look at the bounces. We could go all the way down to 100K again and we'd still kind of be on trend."
"Stuff is supposed to get cheaper over time."
"I couldn't have known that the government wasn't going to shut it down."
"Bitcoin is just better technology, better monetary technology, and so it's slowly becoming mainstream."
"Bitcoin just simply is better money. It is actually scarce and it promotes autonomous saving."
"I've been doing that for five years. And I know other people spend their whole day learning about Bitcoin every single day."
"What causes stress, financial instability, poor health, bad relationships, the list goes on and on."
"Money's job is to be the hedge against uncertainty."
"The people that I have talked to who have got into Bitcoin and are convinced of Bitcoin and are like die hard in Bitcoin are literally the people who like I'm just going to go do a thing."
"Bitcoiners are like nah we just build a protocol."
"Bitcoin is pretty widely associated now with the populist right. So, it's kind of has this political color now."
"This cycle is going to be longer than the previous one than the one from 2021."
"If you want to make a personal financial decision, you are a Nazi."
"Bitcoin is already the lowest inflation rate of any asset in the world."
"Gold didn't fail because of retail transactions."
"The price of Bitcoin will reflect everything every time they try."
"We have all the solutions at hand currently to change our lives and if we don't we will develop them."
"Science progresses one funeral at a time."

HABITS

Dedicate an hour daily to reading Bitcoin information for ongoing education.
Avoid trading to minimize financial stress and focus on long-term holding.
Buy Bitcoin with spare money during dips without predicting prices.
Maintain self-custody of Bitcoin to ensure personal sovereignty.
Surround oneself with Bitcoin-positive communities and conversations.
Learn step-by-step via tutorials for beginners to advanced custody skills.
Study historical roots like cypherpunk documents for deeper understanding.
Hodl Bitcoin as a static savings asset to evade taxation on movements.
Attend Bitcoin conferences to absorb ecosystem energy and innovations.
Reflect on Bitcoin's role in reducing overall life stress across domains.
Use log-scale charts to contextualize price movements rationally.
Opt out of fiat gambling mindsets by saving in sound money daily.
Build multisig setups with hardware wallets for secure inheritance planning.
Curate reading lists from trusted filters like Bitcoin Audible podcasts.
Let go of timelines and predictions to trust long-term appreciation.
Integrate Bitcoin learning with personal growth pursuits like wellness.
Audit reserves regularly when using institutional Bitcoin products.
Practice detachment from price spectacle to maintain emotional grounding.
Share anecdotal successes organically without forcing adoption.
Balance Bitcoin focus with health, relationships, and curiosity-driven living.

FACTS

Bitcoin's price is down 9% from its all-time high on a logarithmic chart.
Global retirement accounts total $60 trillion, with 1% allocation potentially boosting Bitcoin by $30,000.
Canada's M2 money supply growth averages 8-12% annually since 1968.
Bitcoin now exceeds gold's inflation rate at under 1.8%.
Mt. Gox collapse involved business mismanagement, not a Bitcoin hack.
Bitcoin settles 3-4 trillion on-chain, four times gold's total capacity.
U.S. equities settle $1.6 quadrillion annually via FedWire.
Forex markets handle $2.7 quadrillion in annual settlements.
Over 55% of global wealth is tied to real estate bubbles.
Knights Templar pioneered large-scale bills of exchange for gold settlements.
Retail commerce totals 30-40 trillion in annual value.
Internet economy is projected at 8-10 trillion.
Kenneth Rogoff co-authored research on debt-to-GDP thresholds above 120%.
Human Rights Foundation aids censored individuals with Bitcoin globally.
BitTorrent once consumed 70% of internet bandwidth voluntarily.
MicroStrategy and similar firms convert volatility to yield for institutions.
Gold's total market is $20 trillion but settles only $1 trillion.
Bitcoin broke below previous all-time high in bear market for first time.
Conferences like Bitcoin Prague and Vegas draw diverse professionals.
Pete Evans has been Bitcoin-involved for five years post-orange-pilling.

REFERENCES

Tuur Demeester's report on market state, released around December 10.
Guy Swann's Bitcoin Audible podcast episodes.
Pete Evans' Bitcoin and wellness retreat with Bitcoin Advisers.
Saifedean Ammous' The Bitcoin Standard book.
Alex Svetszky's podcast appearance and warnings on trading.
Michael Goldstein's Nakamoto Institute website for cypherpunk history.
Friedrich Hayek's writings on money as hedge against uncertainty.
Reinhart and Rogoff's research on government debt.
Fred Wilson's 2013 concept of bundling and unbundling in tech.
Bill Miller's comments on retirement funds and Bitcoin.
Kenneth Rogoff's 2016 Bitcoin critique and recent Twitter admission.
Unchained.com's Boom-2025 report with Tuur's presentation.
Svetszky's Satlantis Nostr app.
BTC Sessions' learn page tutorials on custody and nodes.
Bitcoin Mentor one-on-one sessions for skills like multisig and Lightning.
Bitcoin Well for buying/selling and OTC desk.
Coinkite's Coldcard and Tapsigner hardware wallets.
Aqua Wallet for mobile self-custody with Lightning support.
Nunchuk's Honeybadger inheritance plan.
HodlHodl P2P exchange without KYC.
Debifi for non-custodial Bitcoin loans.
Cryptocloaks' 3D printed gear like Gamma case and Bitcoin grenade.

HOW TO APPLY

Scan QR codes or visit btcsessions.ca/learn for beginner custody tutorials.
Progress to intermediate videos on multisig and hardware setup.
Advance to node running and privacy techniques in dedicated playlists.
Book Bitcoin Mentor sessions for personalized guidance on self-custody.
Read Nakamoto Institute documents to grasp cypherpunk roots.
Listen to Bitcoin Audible for filtered historical and insightful pieces.
Download Tuur's Boom-2025 report from unchained.com for market analysis.
Attend conferences like Bitcoin Prague to network and learn innovations.
Integrate Bitcoin savings into daily budgeting to build the habit gradually.
Use Aqua Wallet for mobile Lightning payments in everyday transactions.
Set up Nunchuk Honeybadger for secure multisig inheritance planning.
Borrow against Bitcoin via Debifi without selling holdings.
Purchase hardware like Coldcard from Coinkite for air-gapped security.
Trade P2P on HodlHodl to avoid KYC exchanges.
Track money supply data from sources like Fed and Bank of Canada.
Hodl during dips, buying with surplus funds as they arise.
Detach from daily price checks using log charts for perspective.
Share organic stories of Bitcoin benefits in conversations.
Audit personal or institutional Bitcoin reserves regularly.
Explore Nostr apps like Satlantis for decentralized social interaction.
Pair Bitcoin learning with wellness practices for holistic growth.
Avoid predictions; focus on long-term trust in the protocol.
Build parallel habits: save in sats while improving health routines.
Join communities like BTC Sessions for ongoing education and support.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

Bitcoin's institutional tailwinds and sound money principles ensure a resilient bull market, reducing fiat-induced stress for long-term flourishing.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Embrace dips as buying opportunities without emotional attachment.
Prioritize self-custody education to own your financial sovereignty.
Study cypherpunk history via Nakamoto Institute for foundational understanding.
Avoid trading; hodl to minimize stress and maximize simplicity.
Attend Bitcoin events to immerse in the ecosystem's innovative energy.
Use hardware wallets like Coldcard for secure, air-gapped storage.
Integrate Bitcoin savings into budgeting for autonomous wealth building.
Listen to podcasts like Bitcoin Audible for curated deep dives.
Detach from fiat news cycles, focusing on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.
Explore multisig setups for family inheritance and protection.
Opt for non-KYC tools like HodlHodl for privacy-preserving trades.
Borrow against holdings via platforms like Debifi to leverage without selling.
Track hard asset pairings like Bitcoin-to-gold for true value assessment.
Share Bitcoin knowledge organically through personal networks.
Build Nostr-based social connections to escape centralized platforms.
Combine Bitcoin adoption with health practices for comprehensive well-being.
Audit reserves transparently to build trust in institutional products.
Let go of timelines, trusting individual journeys in adoption.
Prepare for longer cycles by diversifying focus beyond price speculation.
Champion Bitcoin's neutrality against political associations.

MEMO

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, a recent $10,000 plunge in Bitcoin's price from its peak has sparked whispers of a dead bull run. Yet analysts like Tuur Demeester, podcaster Guy Swann, and wellness advocate Pete Evans, joining host Ben of BTC Sessions, dismiss the panic as mere noise. With Bitcoin still hovering near $114,000, they highlight enduring tailwinds: explosive global money supply growth, impending 401(k) access to the asset, and gold's parallel rally as a harbinger of spikes ahead. Demeester, fresh off a market report, emphasizes Bitcoin's breakout in gold terms—surpassing a four-year resistance at over one kilogram per coin—signaling strength invisible in dollar volatility.

The panel unpacks why fiat's failures amplify Bitcoin's appeal. Swann decries inflation's disconnect from productivity: why a can of Coke, easier to produce today, costs twenty times more than decades ago. This measuring system gone awry fosters nihilism, plummeting birth rates, and a gambling mindset where saving feels futile. Evans, orange-pilled five years ago, shares how Bitcoin slashed his financial stress, echoing Hayek's vision of money as a hedge against uncertainty. No longer chasing stocks or dodging taxes on every move, holders reclaim mental bandwidth for health, relationships, and curiosity—cascading benefits that restore societal stability.

Institutional adoption marks this cycle's uniqueness, smoothing volatility while retail lags. Demeester notes firms like MicroStrategy converting fiat debt's cheap leverage into Bitcoin yield, challenging bond markets' collapse. Swann predicts a longer bull, breaking four-year halving myths, as barriers fall for banks and governments. Yet caution prevails: political ties to the populist right may breed hesitation, and fiat's god complexes could trigger spectacular failures. Bitcoin's fraud-exposing efficiency—evident in collapses like FTX—will spotlight systemic rot, though blame may unfairly land on the protocol.

Evans draws parallels to his health advocacy, where predictions humbled him: adoption follows personal pain thresholds, not timelines. Still, Bitcoin's ecosystem buzzes with promise—from Nostr apps to mining innovations spotted at Prague and Vegas conferences. The brain drain of talents, from astrophysicists to chefs, fuels unbundling finance's monopolies, enabling permissionless monetization. Globally, it empowers the censored, transcending politics via the Human Rights Foundation's work.

Ultimately, the trio urges newcomers to roots over branches: cypherpunk manifestos at the Nakamoto Institute reveal Bitcoin's DNA as uncensorable money. Self-custody via tools like Coldcard isn't optional—it's sovereignty. As Demeester puts it, Bitcoin isn't a casino but emerging gold, appreciating faster amid fiat's bankruptcy postponement. Swann foresees quadrillion-scale settlements balancing generational debts, while Evans envisions parallel paths: regenerative wealth or entrenched suffering. In this shift, Bitcoin doesn't just survive; it rearchitects trust, one hodler at a time.

The conversation closes bullish, with warnings of rough leverage unwinds but faith in outpacing fraud through relentless building. For the uninitiated, start small: learn custody, hodl through noise, and watch fiat's quicksand yield to sound money's bedrock. This isn't speculation—it's reclamation.